Kevin's Blog

Tragically, the above idiomatic phrase will be the weather story of this week as a frigid arctic air mass grips the nation. Record low temperatures have fallen today from the West Coast to the Upper Midwest.

Currently, sub-zero temperatures are found across most of the Northern Plains.

 Fox Weather Temperature Map - December 15, 2008 10pm CST

In "Extreme Weather Events, Mortality and Migration," Oliver Deschenes and Enrico Moretti attribute over 14,000 deaths in the U.S. every year to extreme cold. This total is more than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and lightning combined. This total also exceeds the number of deaths caused by leukemia, liver disease and homicide.

Chicago has the most annual cold-related deaths, 542, followed by Minneapolis with 448 and Detroit with 426. These major cities will be at risk again as arctic air is forecast to remain in place all week.

Morbidity studies indicate that a person dying because of health complications from exposure to extreme cold dies at least 10 years prior to that person's life expectancy. In addition, whereas the number of heat-related fatalities usually spike during the time of the extreme heat event, cold-related fatalities can continue to occur up to a month after the cold weather outbreak.

Deschenes and Moretti also noted that over the last fifty years, there has been an overall population migration from the Northeastern and Midwestern states to the Southwestern states. Although these moves may have been economically driven, it certainly resulted in a diminished exposure to extreme cold.

The impact? Their study indicates that people relocating out of these regions of extreme cold delay 4,600 deaths every year. In fact, this reduced exposure to extreme cold accounts for about 5% of the overall increase in the life expectancy of the US population over the last 30 years.

If you told a family member or a friend that this cold arctic weather is "going to be the death of you yet," it might be! Please take every precaution to stay warm this week, and be sure to check on family and friends.

If you have questions about how to stay safe and warm in extreme cold, please ask your questions here!

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