Kevin's Blog

One thing is certain. You will never find political articles in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. Theory? Yes! Mathematical equations? Of course! Election politics? Never!

I started wondering if the reverse was also true. Are political journals completely devoid of the subject of weather? Or does weather have a quantifiable effect on elections that might merit some research? If you have been reading our blogs here at Fox Weather, you know by now that the MeteorKnowledgists on staff think that weather affects everything! Here's a chance to put our verbiage where our vote is!

I started with the Journal of Politics. I didn't have to search long. In the August, 2007 edition was the following title "The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections" by Gomez, Hansford, and Krause. In the first extensive study linking weather to voter participation, rain and snow information from 22,000 U.S. weather stations were compared to voter turnout in each of the previous 14 presidential elections. When compared to normal election-day weather conditions, excess rain reduces voter turnout by 1% for every inch of rainfall. Similarly, turnout is reduced by 1% for every additional 2 inches of snowfall.

The most interesting outcome of this study is that poor weather conditions appear to consistently benefit the Republican Party nominee. The authors go so far as to report that George W. Bush's electoral college victory in 2000 was likely determined by the weather in several key states. It is an ironic twist of Presidential fate that the candidate destined to put weather and climate on the front burner of electoral consciousness appears to have been done in by the weather itself!

If you would like to discuss why you think the Republicans get a documented 2.5% vote share advantage when it rains and snows, I would love to hear your theories and comments! Put them in the comment section below!

And with one week to go before the election my advice is this:

Whether you need to tote a coat, or require a boat to cross a moat?
Please exercise your right to vote!

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