Kevin's Blog

With two months until election day, what are the chances that the weather events of this month will determine the outcome of the Presidential race?

September is already the climatological peak of hurricane season, but the first few days of this month are shaping up to be historically noteworthy.

Frequency of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones (Note the peak in September)

Gustav made landfall today on the Louisiana coast, and although a Katrina-like catastrophe appears to have been averted, there is still significant damage and several fatalities. If you would like to share your Gustav stories, you are welcome to do so in the Fox Weather Forums.

As Gustav was making landfall, Hurricane Hanna was getting stronger over the Bahamas, and appears destined to hit the US East Coast later in the week.

As we saw with Katrina in 2005, hurricanes can place a tremendous amount of stress on government at all levels from local to federal. In addition, the next two weeks will undoubtedly break open the climate change arguments and spill them all over the upcoming Presidential debates.

Why?

On the heels of Hurricanes Gustav and Hanna is the aptly named Ike. Just in time for the campaign, all indications are that the rapidly developing Tropical Storm Ike will become the strongest of the September 2008 tropical systems. Like its namesake, Ike has the potential to cross the Atlantic and result in a rather intense invasion somewhere along a vulnerable coastline.

And in Ike's wake, a strong tropical wave that will likely develop into Josephine, and a another strong system behind that one over Africa that could easily become Kyle when it reaches the Atlantic.

Infrared Satellite Image of Numerous Tropical Cyclones on September 1, 2008

With the potential to have 5 hurricanes make landfall or form within a week of one another, global climate change will certainly be thrust back into the national political spotlight and become a key factor in the presidential campaigns. In addition, local elections could be predicated on how each of these storms are handled in terms of pre-storm preparation, and post-storm response.

The Republican National Convention has already been scaled back because of Hurricane Gustav. The reason? A fear of insensitivity to the victims and those impacted. In other words, the weather has already taken control of the American political process, and it does not look to be relinquishing that hold any time soon.

I am looking forward to hearing your thoughts about the potential effect the Hurricane Season of 2008 will have on the Election of 2008. Share them here!